Monday, 10 September 2012

Mere speculation...

Boris Johnson may be trying to work a clever political narrative of win-win with Medway and London residents if you look at the potential outcomes of the Aviation consultation. 

Like the mythical Janus out of Greek mythology Medway residents could be being played as mugs by Tories who are preparing the ground-work; slowly but surely for an Estuary solution over the next three years.

Imagine you were the advisor to the Mayor of London and you need to have a coherent position which not only benefits his position, but also makes the prospects of a Tory government in 2015 more likely; and his ascendency to the top job more secure.

I speculate:

Tories win the next election

  • Estuary Airport proposed - Boris has left his legacy as Mayor of London and has cemented himself as the pre-emptive leadership favourite to challenge Cameron in his second-term as the lead voice in a multi-million pound infrastructure project
  • Heathrow extension proposed  -  Boris having been the main figurehead against the campaign against Heathrow - along with Zac who is making as about as much noise as you can -  could stand as a stalking horse mid-way through the Cameron second term of office having been the largest opponent. He will win significant support in West London after backing a Goldsmith by-election in 2014 on the prospectus of opposing Heathrow and will position the Conservative Party as both being the lead proponents AND opponents on the issue. 
  • Both proposed - Should that outcome occur Boris can go into the leadership ballot on a platform of opposing all future development and running down Heathrow over a manageable period; so gaining both of the above. Boris has won the debate and left his legacy whilst winding down Heathrow over a manageable period

Labour win next election
  • Proposed alternative solution within existing infrastructure - Cameron lost because he dithered and delayed on Aviation which highlighted his weakness as leader. He would stand as a stalking horse candidate in the leadership and command a significant profile in the Tory membership for being bold. 

The Tories can not be trusted on the airport; that much throughout this process is absolutely certain. 

I believe the Conservative Party is moving quite overtly towards an Estuary solution; a simple time line shows that at every stage the Conservative Party has allowed the goal posts on the Estuary solution to slip. Time and time and time again.

Over the next 12 months expect Boris to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayers money on a campaign to discredit our area and our local position

Cllr Chambers is not a strong enough a leader to challenge this position and needs to understand how he is being utterly out foxed.

Boris has put himself in a win-win situation irrespective of the outcome which is only shrewd if it isnt relentlessly exposed over the next three years.

We need to up the ante and soon; locally we should fund a proper campaign and start engaging local people in a real debate

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